SECURITY UPDATE: Middle East
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Although some progress is being made to stop Iranian ships from transporting WMDs, a new U.S. report details the cat-and-mouse game that Tehran is playing to evade sanctions. Iran is doing this not just through deception, but by exploiting the weakness of UN resolutions, as LIGNET explains.
Syrian Chemical Weapons Admission Could Be Turning Point
The Syrian government’s statement yesterday that it has stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons but will only use them in the face of “external aggression” was most likely made in response to the sudden surge in rebel attacks that appear to be loosening President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power. The announcement could lead the international community to reconsider its approach to the crisis in Syria given the possibility that the Assad regime could use these weapons on its own people if sufficiently threatened.
Iran: Fears Over Nuclear Program Grow After U.S. Arrests
Last week’s stunning U.S. indictments over a plot to export U.S. technology for Iran’s nuclear program and new threats to close the Strait of Hormuz suggest that stepped-up efforts to find a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program have failed to reduce the possibility of a military conflict. The size of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile – which could be converted into nuclear weapons fuel – will continue to grow, along with the near-term chances of an Israeli airstrike.
Syria: Conflicting Accounts of Alleged Massacre Hurt All Sides
The UN and the United States roundly condemned a massacre of Syrian civilians by the Syrian army in the town of Tremseh on July 12, but new reports suggest the attack may have been a battle between the Syrian army and armed rebel forces. The death toll also may be lower than previously reported. If these new reports are accurate, it would be another instance of the difficulty of determining the facts on the ground in what now appears to be a Syrian civil war
Iran Won’t be Cowed by New U.S. Bunker Buster Bomb
U.S. Air Force Secretary Michael Donley’s July 25 disclosure that the long-delayed 30,000-pound GBU-57B bunker-buster bomb known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) could be used in action immediately if needed is probably an attempt by the Obama administration to signal to Iran that U.S. military action is on the table in the event that diplomacy and economic sanctions fail to convince Tehran to give up its nuclear program.
Netanyahu Says Israel Still Considering Iran Attack
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’s still debating with government advisers whether to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
The premier spoke in an interview with Channel 2 television as Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was flying from Cairo to Israel to meet him, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and other officials tomorrow.
“I haven’t decided yet whether to attack,” Netanyahu said. “However, I see the commitment of this regime of ayatollahs to develop nuclear bombs that are meant to destroy us and I won’t let that happen.”
Netanyahu said media reports that a decision on Iran has been made are wrong and irresponsible. While describing the process as one that involves conferring with a wide range of advisers, the prime minister noted that Israel’s 1981 air raid on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor was carried out over the objections of the Mossad and military-intelligence agencies.
In Cairo, Panetta told reporters he’ll discuss the Iranian nuclear threat with Israel’s leaders and a “number of options” on how to respond. Iran says its uranium enrichment program will be used only for peaceful purposes.
In Syria’s Turmoil, Al-Qaeda Sees Opportunity
Believed by many to have entered a period of decline, al-Qaeda has reemerged with a series of dramatic bombings in Iraq and probably Syria, putting the region on notice that it cannot be ignored. The latest violence, which killed more than 100 Iraqi civilians, is part of a new strategy to link the insurgency in Iraq with the Sunni jihad against the Assad regime in Syria, a plan that is creating a new regional security threat, as LIGNET explains.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta yesterday that time is running out for the international community to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat. Yes, economic sanctions are seriously harming Iran’s economy — driving up prices, creating scarcity of certain products, etc — but Netanyahu is making clear that he doesn’t see the sanctions actually having any effect on change Tehran’s feverish bid to build nuclear weapons. ”However forceful our statements, they have not convinced Iran that we are serious about stopping them,” Netanyahu told reporters. “Right now the Iranian regime believes that the international community does not have the will to stop its nuclear programme.” What’s more, Netanyahu said, sanctions have “yet to move its nuclear programme even a millimetre backwards.” Joel Rosenberg
[Dr. Ross L. Riggs, Security Consulting Investigations, LLC www.security-consulting.us
GLOBAL SECURITY CONSULTING GSC21 www.globalsecurityconsulting.us]
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