Showing posts with label dr ross riggs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dr ross riggs. Show all posts

Monday, October 6, 2014

Developing a deeper understanding of terrorism today to aid local law enforcement tomorrow

Analysis by Security Consulting Investigations, LLC
"Your premier private investigative service worldwide."
Dr. Ross L. Riggs, Director

1 October 2014

THE ISLAMIC STATE is terminology that is worthwhile as a non-identifier which aides U.S. media in re-drawing the lines as to what constitutes 1) a Member of the Islamic State 2) a State Action by the Islamic State (as compared to non-State action and classified as a 'private action' even when the subject identifies themselves in allegiance to the Islamic State and declares their actions as designed to further the Islamic State. In other words, IS has become a tool for the politically correct to redefine it however they need to for their purposes.

If one traces the etymology of the term Islamic State, a direct correlation can be found with its predecessors of ISIS including but not limited to: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria; ISIL, the Islamic State of Syria and the Levant as well as others. The purpose of the recodification of the terminology is to bolster the Obama Administration's claim following the death of Osama bin Laden that al Qaeda is decimated and on the run, that terrorism as such was eliminated from the known threats for the citizens of the US by al Qaeda's demise.

Nothing, of course, is further than the truth - al Qaeda has been growing and morphing into all varieties of terrorist outlets all across the Middle East and northern Africa. One cannot deny the vitality of the terrorist movement, unless, of course, you consider events such as the pathetic attempt by major media outlets in the U.S. kowtowing to pressure from the Obama Administration to label the beheading of Colleen Hufford, age 54 and the brutal stabbing of Traci Johnson, who remains in serious condition, by Jah'keem Yisrael a known Muslim extremist who tried to convert co-workers to Islam and screamed Islamic phrases as "workplace violence". According to reliable sources, Nolen began attending worship services this May at the Islamic Society of Greater Oklahoma City. This is the same Mosque that Breitbart News report that Imam Suhaib, who had ties to al-Qaeda mastermind Anwar al-Awlaki used to attend.

Under the category of "NAH...HE DIDN'T REALLY SAY THAT, DID HE?" is the
report on CNN September 30th during the morning expose' on the Oklahoma beheading case, stating that the prosecutor was not going to seek the death penalty, the talking heads of psychobabble were declaring the actions by Jah'keem Yisrael, aka Alton Alexander Nolen, a result of the build-up of family and personal pressures since he was a child and the resulting violence was the proximate result of his environment. The anchor, John Berman, closed the
segment with the statement, "this case is a difficult case (referring to the beheading)...any way you slice it." In fact, the news watch Buzz Feed News counted 3 times in 10 seconds that he used the phrase referring to the beheading.

A SECOND THREATENED BEHEADING IN OKLAHOMA CITY - MAN ARRESTED
After a verbal altercation and on-going difficulty in an Oklahoma base nursing home, one employee threatened to behead a female employee. The man, arrested on charges of TERRORISM, claimed that he represented ISIS. Here are the basic facts from MAILONLINE:

  • Jacob Mugambi Muriithi, 30, worked 20 miles away from beheading scene;
  • A Muslim, he was fired on Wednesday for the threats at Bellvue Nursing Home;
  • Muriithi told the victim he would cut off her head and post the footage on Facebook;
  • Police arrested him Friday - the same day  Alton Alexander Nolen was identified as the suspect in the beheading at  Vaughan Foods in Moore, OK; 
  • Muriithi is now being held on terrorism charges with his bail set at $1million.  

First - it is critical to reinforce with local police and with the public that other than a very rare "in the right place at the right time" kind of moment, police very seldom have the ability to "prevent crime" or "protect the citizens" to understand the concept, refer to this author's published article "To Protect and Serve". There is only one person who must accept the responsibility to protect and that is the individual who is facing the attacker. Police respond to a call for help which means that the attack has already taken place. If police take it upon themselves to be the ultimate guardian of the population then every time they fail to be at the exact right spot at the exact time, they will count themselves a failure - great for destroying a job satisfaction and increasing stress exponentially. If the public actually believe that the police officer will come springing out of a phone booth, blue tights and a red cape ready to whisk them to safety, they will certainly be eager to vote down the next safety
levy and bad mouth the police every chance they get.

Can crime be prevented by having a police force that is strong, resilient, professional in appearance and highly visible with a great track record of cases solved and convictions received? Yes! Absolutely! The "less stupid" criminals will go hunt their prey in cities where the probability of being apprehended either in the act or following the investigation is much less. The point, however, is that the individual citizen must be ready at a second's notice to not be a victim. (I have another whole diatribe on why we should drop that word from our language all together, by the way!) The local citizens must be willing, equipped and prepared to defend themselves. Local law enforcement can learn from these recent instances however and take action to prevent such acts of terrorism in their communities -

FIRST ACTION POINT: Local Law Enforcement should get behind quality, self-protection training for their citizens; everything from identifying trouble, reporting suspicious persons and events (sometimes to their employers and to local police).

Recently in a small town in NE Ohio a 90 plus year old woman who lives alone was nearly stabbed to death one evening because she partially opened her front door to someone asking for 組asoline・because his car broke down. This assault never had to happen. A peep hole in the door. A front camera with a video screen, or simply knowing that as a 90 year old woman, she does not answer the front door after dark. Yes, it is a sad commentary on our times but, these are the times in which we live and we must be prepared to protect ourselves.

SECOND ACTION POINT: Local Law Enforcement should train employers on their responsibility to take the reports by employees of bullying, extreme behavior of any kind, and threats very seriously and have a course of action laid out based on the type of threat or incident.

THIRD ACTION POINT: Develop connections within neighborhoods. COPS NEED TO GET OUT OF THEIR CARS - talk to people, develop a rapport with young people, elderly people, shop owners, - Cops need to develop their people skills. The earliest signs of someone about to cause serious trouble (even within normally closed communities like a Mosque) there are always people who either know or suspect something is building and about to happen. Usually these people would tell the authorities if they had someone they trusted and that they knew how to reach. It does not happen overnight but it will never happen if the department does not start.

Here come the nay-sayers with "not enough money, short on personnel...we're running from call to call now and have no time to stop and walk the beat, eating the grocer's apples and getting the kitten down from the tree (oops, that's the fire department's job...skip that last one!)

There are always excuses. There are always obstacles. PRO-ACTIVE POLICING requires no longer being satisfied just going from call to call as "responders"...Someone once said, "if you always do what you've always done, you always get what you've always gotten."

If you go all the way back to 9-11, there was information out there about the hijackers. The citizens who were in contact with them - such as at the flight school - were not trained on what to be looking for, and there was no connection for people to know who to call, how to call, or what to report. The car bomb in Times Square - how many times did those guys drive cross-country and go around buying up chemicals in quantities that only the world's largest hair salon would need?・Did you know that those guys did not exactly fit the description of "Che' Robere's House of Hair". Someone, somewhere, had a gut instinct that these guys were up to something, but "who you gonna call?"

Agencies must not forget the lessons of 9-11 and begin to retreat behind their walls of non-cooperation. Organizations, such as the International Counter Terrorism Officer's Association, continue to support inter-agency cooperation, training, and information sharing. We have the tools, the people, the equipment and methodologies to stop these attacks but we have to get back to some good old fashioned police work.


Beheading of French tourist - The Islamic state claims responsibility

A 55 year old professional mountaineering guide from Nice France, Herve Gourdel was kidnapped on September 28, 2014 by a jihadist group called Jund al-Khalifa (caliphate soldiers). She had been hiking in an Algerian national park. The group claims allegiance to the Islamic State. They had threatened to kill Gourdel unless France stopped bombing ISIS targets in Iraq. A search by a large contingent of security forces of Algeria in the Tizi Ouzou region failed to locate Gourdel. Thirty minutes after President Obama urged the world to
unite against ISIS and destroy what he called a "network of death". ISIS released the short video of Gourdel's beheading.


According to the Langley Intelligence Group, "an international appeal from ISIS in which it called on its backers everywhere to attack Europeans...jihadists in the Philippines declared that they were holding two Germans hostage and would kill them unless Berlin withdrew support for the U.S. led campaign against ISIS or paid ransom...jihadists in a wide array of other locations, including Tunisia, Libya, Jordan, Pakistan and the Caucasus are among those who have pledged allegiance to ISIs, which is gaining supporters around the world...as this terror network grows, so too does the danger to the security of Americans and other westerners who seek to travel the world."

Monday, October 14, 2013

Anti-Terrorism and The ICTOA 2013 Conference


ICTOA CONFERENCE 2013
Las Vegas
 
 
October 10th, 2013 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs
 

Anti Terrorism
Jim Biesterfeld Sovereign Executive Services
951-301-1971 abiest@verizon.net

GOALS of ANTI-TERRORISM OPERATIONS
  • Decrease desirability of the target
  • Identify terrorist activity
  • Decrease the effectiveness of an attack
The key is to make it not financially, politically worth the cost


Title 5 of the USC defines Terrorism (Note: the Fort Hood killings fit the description for a terrorist act very clearly)


LONE WOLF Operations
  • Self-Radicalized
  • Extremist +
  • Many attempts to join regular cause, i.e. Al Qaeda but rejected
  • Acts independent of organized groups but may get assistance from such a group for supplies occasionally.
  • More difficult to detect – do not ignore the indicators

The Manchester Document – al Qaeda’s Playbook

Target Selection 

                                                      > Blasting and destroying embassies
                                                      > Attack vital economic centers
                                                      > Destroy bridges leading into and out of cities
                                                      > Removal of key personalities  “Those that block Allah’s path”


                                                      Target Recon
                                                           To Identify Potential Targets
                                                     
                                                      > Key function that LE patrol units may discover
                                                      > Gather information about:



                                                                       The enemy
                                                                       The land
                                                                       The installations
                                                                       The neighborhood


Collectors’ will:
> Move in two directions
> Often use a rental vehicle paid for in cash
> Have quality ID documents either real or excellent fakes
> Will have a quick answer for why they are in a certain place at a certain time(s)
> May be carrying blueprints or floor plans of buildings
> Will have notes on the physical layout, often these will be laying in plain sight in the vehicle
> Checking access controls
> Monitoring the physical security people
> Interested in types of construction
                  Both technical and non-technical

 Q: What will stand out about them?

A: Maybe nothing but… they will test to see how close can they get?
PROXIMITY
A: Notice how long they stay.
DURATION
A: How often do they show up?
FREQUENCY

The key is to make it financially, politically not worth the cost.” 
– J. Biesterfeld of Sovereign Executive Services

THE CHANGING NATURE OF TERROR



The following is excerpted from “Counter Terrorism: Cyber-War in Tomorrow’s Mirrors” by Dr. Ross L. Riggs


Jihadists often create extensive on-line personas that enable them to build a following, almost a set of groupies that inflate the ego of the would-be terrorists. These cyberspace braggarts may take the step from the virtual world of cyber based calls for jihad and acts of terror to putting down the keyboard and picking up a weapon. It is WEBehavior's mission to find them before they do.

There are websites and magazines devoted to providing a forum for these virtual jihadists. They will often utilize some of the very same marketing tools that major entrepreneurial success stories in the Western world use to promote their products. 
 
These tools, based on how social media is used and by whom, allow investigators to read and understand the context of information that is prevalent on the social media sites. They are particularly useful when the information is posted by the virtual jihadists themselves. By understanding the nature of the social media posts and appreciating the context of what is said, how it is said, when and by whom, it is possible to deduce if a virtual jihadist is going to engage a target in the real world; where that potential target might be; and when such an attack could take place. 

WEBehavior’s CEO says that radical sites and publications like Inspire offer rewards for loyalty to a site or for an increase in the number of posts on a site by a given individual. The rewards can be extremely trivial inducements for this extended loyalty, a ploy known as gamification. Both the virtual and real-world jihadist then has a claim to fame and it is that inflated sense of importance that opens the door for the jihadists’ writings to be tracked by investigators in the race to stop the next attack. 

Alix Levine and the folks at WEBehavior will quickly admit to you that they are not clairvoyant. They are, however, committed and that commitment has paid off in being able to see today’s cyber war in tomorrow’s mirrors. The information that they are able to glean from exhaustive research has begun to point to where tomorrow’s attacks may come and who their perpetrators will likely be.





Tuesday, April 23, 2013

SCI REPORT: DR. ROSS L. RIGGS TALKS ABOUT TERROR

April 21th, 2013 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs

AMERICA is in a state of war. Al Qaeda, AQIM, AQAP, Iran, Hezbollah, HAMAS and an untold number of agents from foreign countries and our own home grown terrorists seek to bring about their desired changes by terrorizing the citizens of the United States into inaction, wrong reactions and worse, surrender. The key to defeating the would-be terrorists is intelligence. Agencies both official and private sector work ceaselessly to prevent further tragedy. Groups like the Langley Intelligence Group (LIGNET)i, Griffith Colson Intelligence Services (GCIS)ii and the Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)iiidevelop methodologies for intercepting chatter from across cyberspace and a host of other areas; but their unequivocally best intel comes from viable and vetted HUMINT or human intelligence. HUMINT can be simply defined as: that which you are told by someone in a position to know the truth. Examples are many about those who have trusted a particular source for reasons other than a solid track record and have come up on the short end of quality information at a critical time.

The contingency manager and those responsible for conducting real-time risk analyses depend on all types of sources for their information. Chatter, of course, is one of those. Most sources come with some degree of fallibility because factors change, variables, by their nature, are often unpredictable and let’s face it, the future is not knowable to any degree of certainty. Human Intel, boots on the ground, is the single most reliable source; depending of course upon whose feet occupies those boots. How can you, as a contingency manager, develop the kind of resources you must have to do your work, the work of saving lives by up front, ahead of the curve information that is actionable and accurate? After a short review of the concept of such a resource, the folks at SCI and GCIS have prepared a systematic approach; a plan, if you will, that contingency managers who may be either novices or old hands should find useful. First, understand the Why you need such resources, because they take time to develop, commitment to keep and patience to protect. If you do not fully comprehend their value, you will not find it worth the effort to pursue. That is a decision that eventually you will regret. Begin now with a commitment to limit the number of regrets you carry with you into retirement. Not having good HUMINT does not need to be one of them.

The threat was real. Opposing armies had gathered on the border and were lying with an ambush set. The story here is true; no names are changed because none are innocent. The opposing enemy was from the ancient region of Philistia. Their opponent was the armies of powerful King Saul; King of Israel. Saul needed to know when and where the Philistines would strike. He needed good Intel and he needed it immediately. The historical text reports that Saul went to a medium, a fortune teller, a witch or simply a person who believes (or causes others to believe), that they can communicate with the dead. In this case, the Witch of Endoriv successfully sees the deceased Samuel, Saul’s former advisor. Saul gets his HUMINT directly from the deceased judge of Israel. In this case the news was particularly negative for Saul but there was no denying its veracity.

Professional intelligence agents usually do not contact spirits, mediums or witches. Not only is it an unwise and unfruitful practice, there is a biblical restriction on it. So how do Intel groups help authorities to avoid another Boston, another Benghazi, Oklahoma City, Beirut, or 9-11? The key for this particular article is to look at what has happened to our intelligence matrix because of the source of the Boston bombings. First, we must recap what exactly the Intel Matrix is and then note the changes that Boston has brought to our understanding of it.
The Matrix done correctly is more than a decision making model that looks good at a briefing. It is an every risk manager’s key for keeping his mind focused on situational awareness, contingency planning and risk abatement. How can it be such a miracle and why does the Boston bombing case make such a direct impact on this model? There are two crucial questions which must be wrestled with in order for the answers to make sense. Those who have used it properly have found it to be an amazing tool.

How can the Risk Matrix be such a miracle? First, understand that any tool is only as good as the hands of the artist or craftsman that holds it. The same is true for the Matrix. By thinking through possible and probable risks for any team under the risk categories of criminal, medical, geographical and political, a team can rate those by their probability and their impact. It is not their placement on the matrix that is important, but the movement of a risk over time across the Matrix from SW to NE or from low impact/low probability to high impact/high probability. It is the movement of risk upon the map. A perfect example of this was Benghazi in 2012 where for months the probability of a terrorist attack was increasing and the negative impact it would have was climbing. Pre-Benghazi Intel made a streak across the Matrix that looked like a chart of rising health care costs! In the months since Benghazi new threats or re-awakened older threats have alerted managers to risks that were not even being considered in 2010.

It is within the confines of this example where already in 2013 the probability of events from China and from Korea was realized and what was not seen as a threat was identified as an expanding risk. When two young brothers, originally from Chechnya, brutally bombed the revelers at the Boston Marathon an entirely new risk came to the fore. The complete lack of regard for human life that it takes to set a large explosive at the feet of an 8 year old boy is the trademark of Chechnyan Muslim extremists. Who can forget the Beslan School Massacre perpetrated against children by these madmen who claim to be freedom fighters but in reality have an ostentatious hunger for the cruelest, most vicious forms of homicidal madness?

It is within this context that Americans must now understand their risk matrix is expanded by the probability of further attacks against the U.S. by members of these Chechnyan groups that may well be underwritten by some faction of Al Qaeda. A likely scenario is that the AQAP (Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula) is the state sponsor of this recent series of events in Massachusetts. An official situation report states that the Boston attacks had “…unmistakable parallels with the smaller scale terrorist attacks that radical Islamist groups based in Yemen and Pakistan have attempted in the United States since 2001.”v The situation report quoted here agrees with the analysis of the GCIS and its Executive Council that groups such as AQAP and others have moved toward smaller attacks that can be perpetrated by small cells operating virtually independent of the team. The sitrep quoted here lists similar bombings in the U.S. since 2001:


    •    NY Subway bombing attempt Sept 2009 – an Afghan citizen arrested after attempting to purchase chemicals for a TATP bomb
    •    Underwear bomber Dec 2009 a Nigerian man brings a bomb sewn into his underwear – credit for the event by AQAP
    •    Times Square bombing attempt, May 2010 a Pakistani attempted to blow up a SUV in Times Square. Pakistani group Tehrik-e-Taliban was behind it.


“The Heritage Foundation listed a total of 50 terrorist plots against the United States in an April 2012 report.”vi

AQAP publishes a magazine titled Inspire designed to encourage the young of Islam to reignite the violence against the west. It is the continuation of the propaganda of Al Qaeda that is designed to bring young men from wherever their homes might be to wage Jihad against the West. Available on the Internet, in a recent edition was an article Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom by the AQ Chef.vii

Are attacks such as the Boston bombings and the Ricin sent to our Washington leaders an end in themselves or a methodology to divert America’s attention in preparation for a major attack? The Director of GCIS and its Executive Council has considered this question and has determined that if nothing else, Boston has set the stage for just such an event. One of the earmarks of groups such as Al Qaeda is to set up a smaller scale attack to observe the responses of emergency personnel and then fine tune the larger attacks to take advantage of those planned responses.

The term conspicuous by its absence applies to the lack of attacks on the western half of the United States. Could it be that these recent attacks are precursors to attacks which are not only bigger but geographically distant? Certainly, Oklahoma City was in the west, but it was a true homegrown terrorist without Al Qaeda ties. When discussing threats to the western parts of the U.S., groups such as Abu Sayyaf are of interest with their reach from SE Asia to America’s islands and west coast which can be accomplished with very little difficulty.

Still, American authorities in the western states will continue to look toward Asia as well as the Middle East and everywhere in between. Deputy Chief Michael Downing, Commander of the LAPD Counter Terrorism Group recently told GCIS’s Director that “In this region we have active terrorist plots…government of Iran operatives, Hezbollah, sovereign citizen, homegrown violent extremists, animal rights groups” and others.viii

 GCIS invoked a concern that even as the west coast braces for what could be a missile attack from Korea; there remains a paramount concern over the vulnerability of schools, particularly their central charges: the children. Whether it is during the school sessions or as they are in transit to and from the school, engaged in outdoor activities or at school events such as sports competitions the variables multiply which cause the risk factors to continue to grow. It is impossible for any person other than the individual’s themself to protect themselves because we have chosen to live in a free society. That sentence bears repeating. Because we have chosen, as Americans to live in an open and free society where the restrictions on personal movement, choice of locations to live, shop, worship or just ‘be’, are fairly few; we cannot depend on anyone other than ourselves to protect us when someone tries to hurt us. We might be blessed that when a crime starts to happen to us six police officers just happen to be standing next to us, but that is usually not the case. Our safety services do their absolute best to fulfill the commitment that has been unfairly slapped upon them: to protect and serve. It is not logical to expect that anyone will be there when you need help. Police respond to calls for help. The dictionary defines respond as: “Do something in reaction to something else.”ix

Police or guardians throughout history have normally protected the citizens in their care by alerting them of coming danger. The role of the citizen on the watchtower goes back to ancient biblical times. In both the Wisdom writings of Judaism and the Old Testament of the Christian faith, the watchman was required to sound the alarm. He is warned that should he fail to sound the alarm as danger approaches, the blood of the citizens would be on his hands. However, if he did sound the alarm and the citizens ignored it; they would bear their own guilt.x The fine line between sounding the alarm and playing into the terrorists’ hands by escalating the tension and concern in a community is part of the art and wisdom of intelligence reporting. The key point must remain however that the official’s duty was to alert the citizen of the impending danger. It was up to that citizen to act, to be prepared to respond to the threat. Director Griffith articulated the precept well: “I urge the American people to be ever vigilant and cautious, shedding the threat of fear for the spirit of due diligence and American citizenship.”xi


With the role of the watchman understood, contingency managers demonstrate that the Matrix is created to be flexible to bring to bear new threats and new information. One recent example is that the BBC reported that North Korea has placed warheads on rockets in threatening an escalation of their rhetoric.xii Additional terror related attacks and events continue to take place even as, in the U.S., the Boston Bombing story consumes most of the air time. In the Peshawar Province of Pakistan, a suicide bomber got within the secure zone and within 500 yards of the U.S. Consulate, killing 12 and injuring 31 (29 Mar 2013). Sources on the ground report that the target of the attack was the Frontier Constabulary (FC) Commander’s convoy. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack in retribution for the Constabulary’s on-going actions against the Taliban. The Commander escaped with only minor injuries.xiii

In each of the cases reported here, the primary ingredient that will define the difference between a deadly attack and one that has not only warned the citizens but provided the information necessary for apprehending those responsible is human intelligence (HUMINT). Very simply, this refers to boots on the ground. Individual people, most living their normal everyday lives within a region where trouble is threatened who know what to report, when to report and to whom to report. That is HUMINT. Of course, there are agents of the U.S. living and working overseas with the primary purpose of providing HUMINT back to their agencies. The examination of the need for HUMINT, the development of appropriate sources and their maintenance are critical subject matter for intelligence services. Without HUMINT resources, intelligence groups can only function to re-evaluate the information disseminated by others or take a best guess approach to forecasting. Attempting to create the Matrix without the advantage of people on the ground is to lose the eyes, ears and critical opinion that the Matrix is designed to offer. Each organizational leader must proactively develop new resources for HUMINT.

An incredible example of the need for boots on the ground type of intelligence resulted in the bombings in Boston this month. According to a Security Consulting Investigations Situation Report dated 19 April 2013, “News that two brothers from the Russian break-away province of Chechnya who have lived in the United States for several years were behind the April 16 bombings makes it likely that they were at least (pseudo) “homegrown terrorists,” possibly radicalized by al-Qaeda propaganda on the Internet. There also is a strong possibility that the two men were somehow recruited and trained by al-Qaeda operatives to stage the Boston attack.” A further report indicates that sometime in 2011 or before an ‘unnamed’ foreign government (Russia) contacted the FBI to request that they research the two young men for the possibility of them being involved in extremist and radical behavior as regards to Chechnya. Initial reports stated that the FBI returned an inconclusive report and that was apparently the end of any investigation into either of them. However, more recent reports indicate that the FBI has known of the two brothers as far back as 2009. The mother of the slain bomber stated that, “My son would never do this,” Tsarnaeva said. “He was controlled by the FBI for three to five years, they knew what my son was doing, they knew what actions, on what sites on the Internet he was going,” she said. “So how could this happen? They were controlling every step of his.”xiv According to Tamerlan’s (the slain bomber) father Anzor, he was present when the FBI interviewed Tamerlan in his rooms at Cambridge. NEWSMAX reports also that at one point the Tamerlan who was the older of the brothers, had been involved in a domestic violence altercation and was eligible to be deported but was not.xv

The SCI Situation Report reveals also that: “The possible involvement of Chechen nationals in the Boston bombing would be consistent with efforts by al-Qaeda — especially Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) — to recruit non-Arabs to conduct terrorist activities. This appeared to be the strategy AQAP employed when it recruited Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the so-called ‘underwear bomber’ who tried to destroy a civilian airliner over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009. Nidal Hassan, the Fort Hood shooter who shot 13 and injured 32 in 2009, had been influenced by and was in email contact with AQAP radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who lived in Yemen at the time.  Al-Awlaki also played a role in influencing other terrorist plots in the United States and the UK.  Al-Awlaki was killed by a U.S. drone strike in September 2011.”xvi Security Consulting Investigations’ continuing analysis indicates that since the strict border requirements along the majority of the U. S. CONUS have made it difficult for Americans to travel overseas for training by Al Qaeda as well as for Al Qaeda operatives to get into the United States. Therefore, the use of electronic media, social websites and training through local mosques has become the standard fare for radicalization of those who seek affiliation with the terrorist organizations. Intelligence operatives within the United States would have very little ability to intercept those here in the CONUS who are taking part in such training unless their international communications tripped a particular set of identifiable words, phrases or locations that alerted super-computers and the analysts working them to review that communication. However, trained boots on the ground in the places where the training is believed to originate could lead operational resources to be able to either capture or destroy the source of the training. Often, it is the only reliable way to apprehend the truth.

HUMINT in places such as North Korea, the Cartels of Mexico, any of Al Qaeda’s branch offices, (including Abu Sayyaf on Mindanao in the Philippines), across the Balkans and the Mediterranean, and particularly in North Africa is more valuable than gold in today’s market! Quality HUMINT, for example, was responsible for redirecting the investigation into who was responsible for the half-hearted attack on the U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo in October of 2011.
xvii xviii

The brand new embassy building, set far back from the street was the focus of one lone gunman who strolled across the street with a rifle in hand as if to make a one man charge against the heavily fortified structure. Bosnian security on the exterior of the building moved haplessly to cut off the path of the intruder, still a good 200 yards away from the exterior walls. Those who sent this misguided, if not brave, zealot on his mission planned to heap the blame for the supposed attack against the U.S. upon the Wahhabi Muslims, a violent sect who live in the mountains surrounding the city of Sarajevo. Their aim was to undercut U.S. and U.N. support for the Muslim population of the Bosnian Federation thus improving the chances for those in the Republik of Serbska (in the Bosnia Herzegovina pseudo-coalition) who desire to break free from the Dayton Accord treaty that keeps the divided country loosely together and are bargaining for Serbska to rejoin Serbia. Boots on the ground were able to clarify that the man was not clearly cognizant of the ramifications of his actions. Also, that he had been led to take such action by evil men who manipulated him. These men knew they were ostensibly sending this man to his death, expecting that when he was shot and killed he could never tell the story of those who played mind games with him to get him to attack the Americans. (A sharpshooter shot him in the kneecap and ended his siege which lasted almost 20 minutes as he shot off 105 bullets, never using his two hand grenades. Although he was, by religion, of the Wahhabis, he was not articulate enough to understand the full ramifications other than he wanted to die a martyr and go to heaven. Neither did he care about the political games in which he had become a disposable pawn. The purpose of recounting this short tale is that no act or artifact is small when it is being parlayed into an international incident driven by evil purposes. HUMINT may be the single strand of truth within the story. HUMINT allows investigators to pull on those loose threads to unravel the sources of these threats and attacks.

Often reports that come from within areas such as Hebron within the West Bank area of Israel show complete unrest and the probability of increased violence against the Jewish quarter of the city and are often vitriolic in their speech and seldom indicate any sense of hope for the communities to survive. Having put my own boots on the ground in Hebron just one week after a reported chaotic and violent episode, it is possible to report on the exact tenor of the Jewish Quarter irrespective of what the conventional wisdom (CW) might be from those who have not been in the Quarter. In contingency management it is crucial to understand the normal disparity that is prevalent between the CW and reality. Even when one cannot get a first-hand reading on the situation, a contingency manager may appropriately factor in a degree of +/- with the CW when preparing analyses. How much of a plus or minus depends a great deal on the experience and artistry of the analyst. There is, as mentioned, a certain amount of art work to developing a strong indication of movement along the Matrix one way or another. Not every person with a computer and an imagination is cut-out to be an analyst.

Selection of the proper personnel for international risk analysis is critical to long-term success of both the analyst and the agency. As with most assignments in cross-cultural settings, the primary qualification for a good boots on the ground type of analyst is language. It is impossible to underestimate the value of strong language skills. Naturally (no pun intended) the best analyst for a given culture is a natural born citizen of that culture. When that is not possible then a good selection is an expatriate who knows the language fluently and is well versed in the geographical area within which he or she is to be operating. Most bog sources are not analysts at all but, just that, sources. They need not be as highly trained or skilled as the analyst but operate under the care and guidance of one. There are particular types of information that are most helpful in any given situation. A bog source that is not intensely trained as an analyst can be taught which type of information is the most helpful in just such a situation. For example, in a criminal or political matter the names of the head of the snake are invaluable but not always available. What can be found is where the movers and shakers of a particular scam or operation, even terrorist cells, are principally operating. In the event of a terrorist cell, the comings and goings of specific individuals is very crucial. Are they leaving the country and if so, at what kind of schedule does there seem to be. When people leave, how many and for how long?

The excellent HUMINT will be able to access that information for the agent without becoming noticed. The operative should look for possible candidates for grooming as a source that come across this type of information in their normal course of business. You do not want someone who lives in one part of town completely opposite where the activity is, nor do you want someone who is obviously western or requiring an excuse to be in the neighborhood and while there is seen as always asking questions. A solid source can gain the information needed without ever asking questions.

The source must not be prone to gambling, girls and gratuities of any kind. To follow the cliché lines of a James Bond movie, those types of folks are just dying to get caught and turned against the handler (people who work on behalf of the analyst or their company to maintain the connection to the source, including dropping payments all planned to keep the actual analyst or the company for which he works unidentifiable by the source if at all possible. This is the way one hopes it will work but it is not often reality. Often time and circumstances do not allow for such an elaborate set up. The source may be someone directly connected to the analyst and is doing what his lot in life has thrown for him to do. The two speak when needed and the analyst will usually come away with some piece of the puzzle. In fact, on the field, he may never see the entire picture, that will be up to the FUSION Centers to keep all the pieces coming together.

We have addressed specifically some of the sources that are used and the methodologies for selecting sources when it comes to counterterrorism. Those are highly prized pieces of information because the fall-out from a missed opportunity there is always in the 5 by 5 or the extreme NE section of the Matrix which is never good. Timeliness of reporting capabilities is a critical factor for a BOG unit. Mentioned earlier were scenarios involving the health outlook for a region or perhaps the housing market if the economy is about to take a nose-drive. In these days, economic collapse of one country, such as the debacle on Crete right now, can cause a domino effect and a myriad of difficulties worldwide. Stock markets are particularly vulnerable to the economic fissures that occur when dictators are thrown out or indictments handed down. The vacuum that can be created in a power structure can also set the stage for major and rapid change. HUMINT on the rapidly changing nature of such series of events are vital for the analysts to know in as close to as real time as necessary. It is unwise to have a source that cannot be in nearly immediate contact. When events occur so rapidly, the delay in information can be a deal breaker. Weather related events can be critical and yet the information on them cab be completely useless if they are not real-time events. The speed at which a tsunami hits will not allow for second guessing because it is not known which way the wind has shifted. Lives will literally hang in the balance when time becomes critical. The nature of the information can be as deadly as the lack of it when it comes to something as dangerous as an international health issue. The avian or bird flu as well as the swine flu that swept across parts of Western and Central Europe sent analysts running to books on the subject for they were attempting to read-up on the risks that they had never accounted for in their mock-ups.xix

Analysts, nor their sources, are expected to be well-versed on every possible threat. They should know, however where to find the accurate information as well as the Best and the Brightest who deal with these risks all the time or have studied them. The world will not (and need not be) impressed with either the source’s or the analyst’s IQ. What will matter is if they are well enough versed in the nature of the event that they can discuss it rationally and without a concern that what they are about to say will be contradicted not out of academic concern for accuracy but from them simply not understanding the facts well enough to speak on the issue.

When the health and safety of one’s fellow countrymen is in the balance, little can be said that is noteworthy if it is not also minute by minute immediately at hand.

The development of quality analyst/source teams is of paramount importance in today’s world. Never before have so many world-class issues on the burner all at the same time. SCI’s careful consideration of the recent events in Boston and Washington D.C. has led us to feel confident that the event in Boston had a two-part Al Qaeda linked plot that was disrupted in part by the quick apprehension of one and the death of the other suspect. They had much more explosive devices upon their persons and in their possession. Those tools are only distributed with a purpose. Theirs’ was not completely fulfilled. Therefore:
   
    •    The brothers, now of notorious reputation, were assigned further roles but failed to fulfill them.
    •    Whether it was the brothers’ assignment or another, SCI believes that a second front was to have been opened by them but it did not materialize.
    •    SCI believes the second front will be somewhere either on the west coast of United States or near there. A primary target is expected to be Las Vegas.
    •    SCI also believes the Hawaiian Islands and Alaska’s oil fields remain a probable, though less so, target.

Developing qualified, vetted and available sources of human boots on the ground intelligence requires first dedicated agents and analysts that will work hand in glove with the resource. The source should preferably be a national partner. If it must be an expat then their language skills must be as close to a natural citizen’s speech. This is not only for the accuracy of the translation but also the subtle nuances of the culture (some are not so subtle). There must be an ability in the source to detect when he is being fed information for purposes other than those which are helpful to our nation. The source must be free from addictions and avenues of entrapment that are so common to men, so well used by women (which argues for female resources over males – an argument I feel free to push forward). The source must be capable of both timely communications with handlers and to step into a hyper-connectivity when things turn critical. Depending upon the nation or culture within which the source is working, he or she must be resilient to the crush of working within shrouds of secrecy that can be more choking than intriguing. When all is said and done, even with the best possible intelligence sources - if the machine into which it is all fed fails to perceive the nuances, track the changes and deliver the warning in a timely manner; all is for naught.

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Allow us at Security Consulting Investigations on behalf of our team at Griffith Colson Intelligence Services and a myriad of partners across the globe echo Sir Winston Churchill from the days after the British were pushed back to the sea and it seemed the war all but lost.
From the Home Office he issued the following communique: (Strictly Confidential) 28 V 40 (May 28, 1940)

“In these dark days the Prime Minister would be grateful if all his colleagues in the Government, as well as important officials, would maintain a high morale in their circles; not minimizing the gravity of events, but showing confidence in our ability and inflexible resolve to continue the war till we have broken the will of the enemy…”xx
xxi


i www.lignet.com
ii http://griffithcolsonintelcenter.tumblr.com
iii www.investigativeproject.org
iv Note play on words, 1960 television sitcom with Bewitched – the part played by Agnes Moorehead: Endora)
v www.lignet.com Security: the Americas: “Could Al Qaeda Be Behind the Boston Marathon Bombings?”
vi Ibid.
vii Ibid.
viii GCIS Communication 19 April 2013
ix Encarta Dictionary: English North America, accessed 4-21-2013 2312
x Ezekiel 33:1-9
xi GCIS Communication 19 April 2013
xii http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21974381
xiii http://dawn.com/2013/03/29/explosion-in-Peshawar-casualties-feared/
xiv http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/fbi-interviewed-bombing-suspect/2013/04/19/id/500471?s=al&promo_code=13381-1
xv IBID.
xvi Security Consulting Investigations, LLC Situational Analysis Report 19 April 2013 Dr. R. L. Riggs
xvii http://www.newsytype.com/13222-terrorist-attacks-us-embassy/
xviii http://www.flarenetwork.org/report/syntheses/article/holy_war_state_terrorism_and_organised_crime_in_bosnia.htm
xix atiburrillo.redliberal.com/011080.html
xx atiburrillo.redliberal.com/011080.htmlChurchill, Winston Their Finest Hour The March to the Sea The Riverside Press: Cambridge 1949 p 91
xxi http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1207763/Privately-Churchill-called-bloody-Yankees—lovers-ardour-fawned-flattered-flirted-woo-U-S.html

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ABOUT DR. ROSS L. RIGGS:

Dr. Ross Riggs is a former Louisville Ohio Chief of Police, and trained with the United States Air Force where he was an honor graduate of the Air Force Security Police Training School at Lackland AFB.

After 30 plus years in public safety, law enforcement and military weapons systems security, he now enjoys consulting both on security issues and by conducting private investigations. His company, Security Consulting Investigations, LLC, is licensed by the Ohio Department of Public Safety and Homeland Security as a Class A company. SCI assists private persons, organizations, businesses, schools and religious institutions in developing and maintaining a high degree of security consciousness.

Dr. Riggs also works overseas with both ministries and other organizations to help prepare for crisis intervention in some of the most difficult regions of the world.

He is one of America’s foremost security entrepreneurs.




Wednesday, April 10, 2013

SCI GLOBAL SECURITY UPDATE 
Nuclear and Conventional Missile Threats

April 10th, 2013 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs



Threats of possible missile strikes by three of the world’s real Mad Men (read: crazed, lunatics) continue to cast a shadow across the world. 

This past weekend, talks requested by Iran (another stalling tactic) that took place in Kazakhstan between Iran and world leaders fell through, and Ahmadinejad’s threats to unleash nuclear attacks against Israel and the United States began anew. 

According to sources within South Korea and Japan, the threat from North Korea has expanded to include the possibility of missile attacks against U.S. military posts in Japan. The Japanese government is said to be readying defenses while the U.S. State Department, concerned that their actions of preparation in the region may be seen as ‘provocative’ are scaling back the rhetoric.

In the Mediterranean, Iran is again ratcheting up their rhetoric against Israel. In conjunction
with the on-going war in Syria where the threats of chemical weapons continue to cast a
shadow over the country; renewed threats of missile strikes against Israel encircle the small
nation. The following map provides a clear understanding of the size of the threat under which the Jewish and Israeli Arabs live every day. According to the 2010 census, over 1.6 million Arab-Israeli citizens, or 20 percent of the country’s population, are put into harm’s way by the Arab-Palestinian HAMAS and Hezbollah daily.


Friday, April 5, 2013

CYBER-WARFARE: A Military Response Capability
  April 5th, 2013 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs


A short time ago, I presented a lecture series on Cyber-Warfare on ICTOA Radio as part of a Lecture Series: Counter Terrorism in the United States 2013
The following is an update to that lecture:

Cyber-Warfare has become the tool of our enemies; particularly, the Chinese have used this capability to go beyond nuisance hacking to espionage and the deliberate shutting down of resources necessary for the daily functioning of services with a goal of adversely effecting the United State’s economy and its dollar’s showing on world markets. In the recent lecture, SCI took the position that certain of these acts are acts of war against the United States and companies continuing to do business with avowed enemies of the U.S. were committing nothing less than treason. SCI has also held that until recently, the strongest response from those in the ‘IT world’ was to provide counter-measures for attacks after they happen and do very little to track down the perpetrators of the attacks to force them to cease any further attacks by eliminating their capability to do so.


A report released by the Pentagon today has changed the playing field quite a bit. Although much of the report is classified so not all parts can be shared in this venue, SCI can report what has been released on the expanded capabilities of the U.S. military to seek out and destroy those who are engaged in acts of war against the U.S.

The first step was to delineate what, in cyber-technology, constitutes an act of war. There must be a way to articulate what that line is and how it has been crossed to permit a military response in retaliation for the attack. There is a distinction made between cyber attacks that are espionage and/or theft and cyber acts of war. General Keith Alexander, head of the Cyber-Command was quoted as saying, “If the intent is to disrupt or destroy our infrastructure, I think you’ve crossed a line.”[1] Lt. Col. Damien Pickart a Pentagon spokesman confirmed that there have been developed rules of engagement that “provide a defined framework for how best to respond to the plethora off cyber-threats we face.”[2] `

Perhaps the primary effectiveness of the new development in cyber-warfare from the military standpoint is the wisdom the Pentagon has shown in implementing a solid strategy. First, they defined for their commanders what constitutes an act of war in the cyber-world. Secondly, and most encouraging is that they have given military commanders both the clear guidance they need in such instances but also the authority to take retaliatory action without seeking a presidential clearance to act. The military response can be swift, sure and definitive. That is a combination that creates a solid deterrence to those who seek to harm the interests of the United States. 


One CSO of a major security company was quoted as saying, “This is putting the world on notice, particularly the Chinese, that we’re tired of them breaking into private companies.”[3]

In a time when the world has been receiving mixed messages from the Administration about our willingness to protect our own, the Pentagon should be applauded for stepping up to the task of sending a clear message that the line has been drawn and to cross it will bring a definitive response.

_________________________________
 
[1] Pentagon Develops Rules of Engagement for Cyberwar USA Today 5 April 2013 5A
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

First Responders Check Your IED IQ

The Police Blotter - If there is anything of which you, as a street police officer, should be aware, it is the violent, indiscriminate murder that is being caused throughout law enforcement and other public safety first responders, by IED’s, Improvised Explosive Devices.

The Homeland Security Network recently ran a series of articles on IED’s which highlights the increase in IED use, some new tactics by those who deploy these vicious weapons against our cops. According to US Army Lt. General Barbero, IED attacks “outside Afghanistan and Iraq have more than doubled in the last three years.” (emphasis added) The key point is outside Afghanistan and Iraq. The simple technology of creating, deploying, and detonating these devices has been turned against law enforcement in our own cities and towns.

This is happening not just in the United States but across the world. Authorities report that
“…from January to September, there were an average of 608 attacks per month in 99 countries; including 367 IED attacks in the US alone during that same time frame.” 
Consider those numbers, 608 deadly attacks in 9 months. That is about 67 per month, more than two every single day. Now, these numbers are not strictly attacks against law enforcement. It can be drug wars between gangs but regardless when that kind of violence happens in our cities and towns, first responders are still laying their lives on the line when they respond to these kinds of calls.

According to the USA Today article quoted in “IED Use on the Rise” in HSN,
“IED’s popularity among criminals, narcotics traffickers and terrorists continues to grow, aided by the spread of online of bomb-making technology, like the 102-page English-language e-book titled ‘The Explosives Course…’ is putting first responders at risk in a way in which they never have been previously."
Very often the street police officer has heard the term that they are the thin blue line of first defense between civilization and anarchy. Now, though, they are truly the first line of defense in an all-out battle for the societies in which we desire to live.

General Barbero wrote that “…the IED is cheap, effective and readily available…” and he also warned each of us that it is and will be an “enduring threat.” Perhaps one of the most horrific ways in which this threat is being carried out against law enforcement and first responders is by luring them into a trap. According to an HSN report on based on information coming out of Mexico this use of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED) is call the “Trojan Horse of Terror.”
 
The VBIED is like the original Trojan Horse of the Battle of Troy that allowed the Greeks to final enter the City of Troy and end their ten year siege because “it arouses little suspicion, making it a not uncommon means of deploying devices.” The twist that has been put upon the use of VBIEDs is that officers are being lured to the location of a VBIED rather than trying to force the VBIED into where the police are. One example was a planned aggressive act by the offenders, known drug cartel, armed in a motor vehicle of their own that led the police into pursuing them. The offenders manipulated the pursuit until the officers were within striking distance of the VBIED and detonated it. “This tactic has been used indiscriminately against many targets including first responders.” This type of ‘Trojan Horse’ tactic is becoming more prevalent in the U.S. According to one expert, there were four such incidents in the US between mid-2010 and January 2011. According to ‘InSight Crime’ an organization that tracks organized crime and security issues, there have been at least another three incidents between January and September 2011.

What can you do as a law enforcement officer working the patrol assignment that could come in contact with just such a VBIED or an IED? Education and training are the keys. For example, on-line at the Federation of American Scientists site you can find a military manual of five chapters [PDF] dedicated to identifying and mitigating the risk of IEDs and VBIEDs. There are also a variety of YouTube videos that show the training used to avoid them and the consequences of a close encounter with an IED. The better the training you can arrange for yourself or that can be arranged for your department the better prepared you will be in the event the ‘Trojan Horse’ is set at your gate.

Security Consulting Investigations, LLC can arrange for the training within our department. Contact SCI at director@security-consulting.us. You may also contact us through www.security-consulting.us

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The Explosives Course” was written by students of Abu Khabab Al-Masri, the al-Qaeda explosives expert killed in a drone attack by US forces in 2008.

Sylvia Longmire, a former Air Force Special Agent, former senior border security analyst for the State of California, and author of the recently published book “Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars

Thursday, October 20, 2011

A Wind of Change in the Desert

 

August 22nd 2011 – the winds of change blew across the Sinai desert and encompassed the Egyptian presidential palace and left in its sandy wake the Mubarak regime a memory and an opening for radical Islamic extremists to take over this prime location on the steps of the Middle East. Two months later, this wind blew again across the African sands. In the wind came NATO airstrikes and as the wind began to subside, on October 20, 2011 Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi lay dead in the dirt streets, surrounded by the poverty he forced upon the Libyan population. The vacuum left in the violent end of Gaddafi’s regime leaves a vacuum that will be quickly targeted by the extremist radical Muslims eager to cement their position on the African continent.

Their goals are twofold… first, to sweep Islamic law into nations and, with Sharia, bring the worldwide caliphate dreamed of by the extremists, and, second, to build the treasuries of Al Qaeda and its counterparts to encourage the on-going jihad against Israel, the U.S. and all non-Muslims around the world. What does that mean for local LEO’s in the U.S.? I think the answer also comes in two parts.

Very often in police work, officers are used to pursuing the leads, tracking the offenders, building the case and marking it ‘closed’ upon the prosecution of those responsible. Perhaps one of the biggest reasons that cops hate calls like domestic disputes is that there is never a resolution, a final ‘case closed’ but it is often a no-win situation that seems to go on and on. Officers are ‘fixers’. They come into a situation that is in havoc, take control, find a solution and move on. They find they cannot ‘fix’ domestics. How does that apply to ‘jihad’?

Eliot Ness - Never stop 'til the fight is done.
Never stop 'til the fight is done.
Jihad by definition is an on-going struggle. It never ends for the true believer until he leaves this world. So, for the local LEO’s that are working now, perhaps mid-way through their career; this jihad war will be one that they hand off to the generation of cops that come after them. If you are one of today’s officers, you will learn, educating yourself on all of the risks and tactics of domestic terrorism and the extremists that bring the war into your neighborhoods. And, when it comes to the end of your watch, the next generation will have to pick up where you left off. The level of risk will wane and then intensify based on the geo-political atmosphere of the day. Fusion centers, as a methodology, may come and go, or they may increase in their effectiveness. Information gathering will become even more vital to how the new cops handle the situations they face.

So, do we throw up our hands in disgust, giving in to the notion that we cannot stop it? That can never be our response. For the families living in your communities, raising their children in what they hope is a safe place; there is only one response. In the movie, The Untouchables, law enforcement legend Elliot Ness got into Al Capone’s face in the courtroom upon his conviction and threw Capone’s words back at him… “Never stop, never stop fighting till the fight is done… never stop fighting till the fight is done… here endeth the lesson.” No lesson is more on target in fighting against jihad extremists. None.

Here endeth the lesson.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Dirty Bombs and other Mass Casualty Incidents ~ Police Response



October 13th, 2011 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs
So, here you are, the day after a mass casualty incident in your city. An event that ‘could never happen here’ has happened. How did you respond yesterday? How will you react today? Your department has taken a public stance and now you are going back out into the community to work the streets and try to communicate to your citizens that they are still safer here than 99% of the rest of the world, and that they can go on with their lives. 

Dirty bombs, terrorist acts, and WMD’s are designed to instill fear into the community. Yet, they are now part of our reality.

Follow the link to read more about the response priorities for officers following large scale incidents.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Situational Awareness



October 1st, 2011 | Author: Dr. Ross Riggs
Sometime back I posted a blog on Situational Awareness and the concept of TEDD: Time, Environment, Distance, and Demeanor. In reply to a question for clarification, I submit to you the following:

Mr. Fred Burton from STRATFOR writes,
 “…one common denominator of all the different potential threats — whether from lone wolves, militant groups, common criminals or the mentally disturbed — is that those planning an operation all monitor their target in advance. However, while pickpockets or purse-snatchers case their victims for perhaps only a few seconds or minutes, a militant organization might conduct detailed surveillance of a target for several weeks or even months.”
The longer that a person or group of persons does surveillance prior to committing any type of criminal attack or other illegal operation, the more susceptible to being discovered and even neutralized. The key, as mentioned, is TEDD.  

T (time) - are these people or is this person with you, or near you for too long a period of time, or at several apparently disconnected times? Do they continue to appear, the same person(s) over and over? To know this you must be paying attention to people, their appearance and dress as well as demeanor. Anything that you can spot quickly that will tell you this is the same person you have seen previously. 
E (environment) – do they not fit in the place you are seeing them? If you want to test this, say for example you are a female being followed by a male. If the person does not seem to have an accomplice who is female, or if you want to see if they might, if you can drop into a place that is usually only for women. A ladies store such as a Victoria’s Secret, even though some men do shop there, if this person follows you in and looks totally out of place; you may have identified a threat. Or, if suddenly a female enters the store and pays too much attention to you or follows you as you leave without buying anything; again you may have found our threat (or at least part of it). 
D (distance) - This can be either too close or strangely too far away at odd times or just a sense you get as you notice someone at that distance. 
D (demeanor) – how do they act, particularly when you turn and face them or purposely put yourself in their way. (This is a tactic that must be used only most cautiously when you have ample witnesses like in a very public area.)

Mr. Barton writes,
“An effective CS program depends on knowing two “secrets”: first, hostile surveillance is vulnerable to detection because those performing it are not always as sophisticated in their tradecraft as commonly perceived; and second, hostile surveillance can be manipulated and the operatives forced into making errors that will reveal their presence.”

There is a great deal more to be said on this particular issue but for now, keep these basic thoughts in mind and if there is a marked interest I will follow up with a series of blogs on this topic.